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How Smart People Think: Simple Frameworks for Better Business Decisions

How Smart People Think: Simple Frameworks for Better Business Decisions illustrates through real-world examples how individuals like Warren Buffett, Oprah Winfrey, and Jeff Bezos quickly solve problems and make decisions. They use mental frameworks, which are simple tools that assist in decision-making.

The book covers challenges such as:
• Facing too many problems – use the Eisenhower matrix to identify what’s urgent and important.
• Handling too many tasks during a crisis – use goal shedding, a technique Dick learned directly from Sully Sullenberger, the heroic pilot who landed the plane on the Hudson River—a flight he also experienced!
• Needing to think quickly – use the Navy SEALs framework of “Say three, pick one.”

These mental structures help you think more efficiently and in less time.

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Table of Contents

Foreword

Introduction The Way You Think Shapes Your Life

PART I: Foundations of Thinking

  • Chapter 1 Map vs. Territory
  • Chapter 2 Fast and Slow Thinking
  • Chapter 3 Circle of Control

Part II: Avoiding Common Pitfalls

  • Chapter 4 Anchoring Bias
  • Chapter 5 Confirmation Bias
  • Chapter 6 Attribution Error
  • Chapter 7 Sunk Cost
  • Chapter 8 Loss Aversion
  • Chapter 9 Marshmallows
  • Chapter 10 Dr. Phil

Part III Principles of Clarity

  • Chapter 11 First Principles Thinking
  • Chapter 12 Occam’s Razor
  • Chapter 13 Inversion
  • Chapter 14 Six Honest Serving Men
  • Chapter 15 No-cost Consultant

Part IV: Decision Analysis Tools

  • Chapter 16 Divergent and Convergent Thinking
  • Chapter 17 Pareto Principle
  • Chapter 18 Expected Value
  • Chapter 19 Opportunity Costs
  • Chapter 20 Second-Order Thinking
  • Chapter 21 Scenario Planning
  • Chapter 22 Probabilistic Thinking

Part V: Dynamic Environments 

  • Chapter 23 Say Three, Pick One
  • Chapter 24 OODA Loop
  • Chapter 25 Goal Shedding
  • Chapter 26 Eisenhower Matrix
  • Chapter 27 Bezos’s Two-Way Doors
  • Chapter 28 Zooming In and Out
  • Chapter 29 Tame and Wicked Problems

Part VI: Personal Effectiveness 

  • Chapter 30 Self-Efficacy
  • Chapter 31 Minimum Commitment
  • Chapter 32 Franklin Framework
  • Chapter 33 Anti-Fragility
  • Chapter 34 Bayesian Learning
  • Chapter 35 Stockdale Paradox

Part VII:  Weaving it All Together

  • Chapter 36 The Latticework of Models
  • Chapter 37 Cruel Sea
  • Chapter 38 So What, Now What?
  • Alphabetical Listing of Mental Models in this Book
  • Expand Your Thinking: Additional Resources
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